While acknowledging that they needed strong allies for a chance in the assembly polls, AIADMK cadres seemingly prefer actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to the BJP, owing to the latter's 'communal agenda' and consequent hardline Hindutva image, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the Rajya Sabha elections 2024, setting the stage for polls to fill 37 seats across 10 states on March 16.
While the DMK depends on a 'silver sieve' of welfare schemes to stay in power, its support is slowly draining away under the weight of poor governance, corruption, and voters who are no longer satisfied with benefits alone and now want basic administration to work, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
After big win in Bihar, the BJP is likely to push harder in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK government and the uneasy BJP-AIADMK alliance are preparing for a tense election filled with seat-sharing fights, changing alliances, and the unpredictable entry of Vijay's TVK party, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
S A Chandrasekhar, father of actor-politician Vijay, has appealed to the Congress party to form an alliance with his son's party, TVK, in the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
According to the PM, CMC means "Corruption, Mafia, Crime."
BJP veterans whom K Annamalai has reportedly sidelined are upset over his 'immature' way of handling allies, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
Senior AIADMK leader M Thambidurai has asserted that there will be no coalition government in Tamil Nadu in 2026, with party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami forming a government "alone." He said this in response to reporters' queries on the possibility of a coalition government if the NDA wins the 2026 Assembly election. Thambidurai stated that Tamil Nadu has never had a coalition government, citing the examples of Congress leaders C Rajagopalachari and K Kamaraj, as well as Dravidian stalwarts M G Ramachandran and M Karunanidhi. He further clarified that Palaniswami's previous statement regarding a coalition government was misinterpreted by the media.
The Rajya Sabha elections saw several candidates elected unopposed, including Sharad Pawar and Ramdas Athawale, while Bihar, Odisha, and Haryana prepare for contested elections.
Like his father Karunanidhi and AIADMK rivals MGR and Jayalalithaa, Stalin would like to confine his real political work to Tamil Nadu, and not want to take after the late Congress leader K Kamaraj and take up a national role, even if to create greater political space for son Udhayanidhi, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Successive elections since 2019 have proved that the Modi charisma and Shah's strategy does not work in Tamil Nadu. Now, they have to see next year if the DMK is capable of losing, whether to an existing NDA alliance or an expanded version, if one becomes necessary and possible!, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Senior DMK leader I Periyasamy reiterated that Chief Minister M K Stalin is firm against sharing power with allies, dismissing any possibility of a coalition government in Tamil Nadu.
'What is worrying other parties is those 10-11 year olds who come for his meetings will cross 18 in the next election. And they will vote for him, and then his vote bank will double.' 'In that case, he will be a very serious player! This is the real scare for other political parties.'
The DMK may consider a two-tier campaign, where they keep the focus on Chief Minister Stalin, as a senior statesman with 50-plus years of political experience, and let EPS and the BJP shout in the wilderness. In such a case, the second-tier may project Udhayanidhi as the contender and chosen obstructionist in Vijay's path. The attempt, if any, would be to reduce Vijay to Udhayanidhi's level when the former is aiming at Stalin and Stalin alone in the state's political horizon, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The bickering between allies All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Bharatiya Janata Party in Tamil Nadu over late Dravidian stalwart C N Annadurai peaked on Monday with the regional party snapping ties with the saffron organisation, saying it cannot tolerate any affront to the late chief minister and its other leaders.
'Stalin's intention is plain and simple.' 'The DMK wants to convert what is an 'incumbency-centred' election for the party-led alliance into one more 'Modi/BJP election' after Stalin's successive success in 2019 and 2021, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam on Monday questioned Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party chief K Annamalai's intention to criticise the party despite being in the alliance, and said it will be forced to rethink its ties with the saffron party if Annamalai is not restrained.
The likes of Sengottaiyan can help Vijay navigate it better and faster -- but not necessarily to his goal, which is farther, and can move towards or away from him as well in the weeks and months to come, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami has ruled out the possibility of re-inducting expelled leaders like O Panneerselvam, stating that those who "betrayed" the party have no place in it. He also praised the BJP-led Centre for protecting the AIADMK government in 2017.
TVK cadres are worried, the leadership looks weak, and the party is not fully prepared for the 2026 elections, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Tamil Nadu unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party on Monday announced that it would contest alone in the urban civic polls slated to be held on February 19, even while asserting that its alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the state remained intact.
The two weeks that EPS took fending off the Sengottaiyan rebellion has since become lost time for the AIADMK as that was also the time Vijay took to go all-out against Stalin and the DMK, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The EPS camp feels assertiveness will help the AIADMK keep the BJP's seat-share ambitions to the minimum,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the TVK joins the NDA, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government. In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK president M K Stalin announced that his party will file a case in the Supreme Court against the Waqf Bill passed in the Lok Sabha. The opposition AIADMK expressed solidarity with the DMK's stance, while the BJP members staged a walkout from the Assembly in protest. The CM argued that the amendment was passed at the behest of a few allies despite opposition from majority parties and that it is an attack on the Constitution and religious harmony. The DMK claims the bill threatens the autonomy of the Waqf Board and the Muslim minority population.
'Vijay is badly politically wounded.'
'It's a natural alliance and this alliance has been has been formed without compromising the core ideology of the AIADMK.'
The BJP's MoSha leadership are past masters in encouraging defections from their allies if it helped their party capture the chief minister's chair. In Bihar, they are not sure if JD-U MPs and MLAs would be willing to cross over to the BJP if the Nitish leadership came on top -- and the NDA crossed the halfway mark together, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
...the DMK chief minister's campaign -- which includes criticism of the BJP's 'pro-Hindutva, anti-Tamil, anti-federal' policies and building on his own government's social welfare programmes targeting especially women and youth -- appeals to Tamil Nadu's voters in next year's assembly election, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
He ruled out an electoral alliance with any party and said next year's Assembly poll will be a straight contest between his TVK and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
The Deepa Thoon controversy, if not allowed to die a natural death, could take the election focus away from the anti-incumbency impacting the DMK and into the secular space. Stalin would love to have it that way, all over again, after the three past elections, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu on Saturday said its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party will continue for the 2021 assembly elections and exuded confidence it will win a hat-trick poll next year.
Vijay is counting on what was once proclaimed as his last filmi outing, Jana Nayagan, or 'People's Hero', to do the trick for him, when it releases on January 9, 2026, only months before the assembly poll, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijay, despite the loud message from his delayed arrival at the road-show/stampede venue, and more so his continued inaccessibility for fans-turned-cadres after graduating from a super-star to a political party leader with electoral ambitions, refuses to change. Or, so it seems, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
EPS' acceptance of Amit Shah's proposal for an electoral alliance with the BJP is being interpreted to mean how the AIADMK has signed up the NDA national leader as a junior partner. Not many have appreciated EPS for this strategic move that has now forced the BJP to play second fiddle to the AIADMK. This has meant that the BJP has buried its ambitions of capturing power in Tamil Nadu now, and is willing to wait until after the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The decision comes amid an assessment of potential security threats and follows standard protocol based on inputs from central security agencies.
This is important because he is to be seen as a sure winner before criss-crossing the state to campaign for candidates of the party or an alliance, highlights N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Karur tragedy has exposed the huge gaps in Vijay's understanding of realpolitik, elections and political administration, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
